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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–21 on winners spread MAE 10.0 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wagner @ Stonehill +4.1 126.1 63% 61–73 ✓
Saint Francis @ Mercyhurst +0.5 137.4 51% 58–62 ✓
Le Moyne @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.6 149.5 74% 74–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University -4.7 128.4 29% 63–50 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT -7.3 139.5 23% 62–83 ✗
Bryant @ UMBC -2.0 162.0 40% 92–86 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +10.8 147.7 87% 85–81 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Troy +10.3 140.1 86% 74–81 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison +11.0 139.8 87% 64–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +8.3 148.4 81% 53–106 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -2.5 131.8 38% 57–68 ✗
Green Bay @ Oakland +10.8 135.9 87% 54–68 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T -9.4 149.6 16% 83–59 ✓
William & Mary @ Campbell +1.3 147.5 54% 55–96 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth -2.0 133.2 42% 97–104 ✗
Hofstra @ Elon +4.1 132.2 66% 74–63 ✗
Northeastern @ Hampton -0.0 140.1 49% 78–69 ✓
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +8.7 137.2 83% 67–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee +5.5 137.7 75% 61–57 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +2.8 137.0 64% 72–64 ✗
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +12.9 131.5 86% 62–58 ✗
Louisiana @ Texas State +10.9 145.3 87% 70–61 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +13.6 145.7 88% 80–71 ✗
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +9.3 142.3 84% 77–86 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +5.1 143.5 72% 68–70 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +1.0 131.1 59% 54–61 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State +3.8 153.7 68% 72–62 ✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +2.6 143.4 64% 74–78 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -3.0 141.8 38% 76–68 ✓
Tennessee State @ Little Rock +5.8 139.4 75% 72–70 ✗
Illinois @ Nebraska -4.2 150.9 36% 74–80 ✗
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State +4.5 141.5 68% 79–90 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood -3.2 137.9 35% 63–65 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois +0.4 128.9 52% 71–59 ✗
Memphis @ Tulane -6.9 146.4 25% 68–56 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +10.1 132.9 86% 58–70 ✓
Idaho @ Weber State +1.4 143.5 58% 82–74 ✗
Portland State @ Montana +0.8 141.8 54% 78–92 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State +4.3 138.5 68% 70–78 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.4 147.0 67% 68–58 ✗
Kansas City @ Denver -4.4 132.2 32% 68–69 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield +3.0 157.4 67% 90–81 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Riverside +5.5 138.4 72% 58–60 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +1.1 144.8 56% 78–71 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -14.3 136.8 13% 80–75 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego -3.3 141.1 36% 98–90 ✓
Portland @ Loyola Marymount +10.9 145.7 87% 63–88 ✓
Washington State @ Pacific -9.8 149.5 18% 68–70 ✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +7.0 135.0 76% 60–83 ✓
Oregon @ UCLA +3.7 141.7 68% 52–78 ✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon +9.5 141.6 83% 74–83 ✓
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i -7.0 138.5 23% 74–63 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -2.9 147.0 39% 77–70 ✓
Butler @ Georgetown +2.9 136.3 64% 70–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.