Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -320 NMSU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -7.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -5.2 (-9.2) | 140.4 (-22.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -4.2 (-8.2) | 139.6 (-21.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -5.5 (-9.5) | 137.7 (-19.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -5.8 (-9.8) | 138.3 (-20.3) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTSU 86 – 85 NMSU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MTSU 59 – 55 NMSU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 66 NMSU |
| Feb 16, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 NMSU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NMSU 73 – 62 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#106) | 0.4 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#83) | -0.07 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#90) | 0.20 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#49) | 0.498 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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