You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–14 on winners spread MAE 6.5 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UNC Asheville @ High Point +8.5 151.1 79% 100–104 ✓
NC State @ Stanford +6.8 138.8 77% 73–74 ✓
Vermont @ UAlbany +2.0 131.7 61% 68–62 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Lamar +4.9 143.2 72% 68–70 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +9.0 150.8 83% 73–91 ✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne +14.2 153.2 88% 74–89 ✓
Bellarmine @ Jacksonville +14.2 144.9 88% 64–73 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Long Beach State -10.2 147.0 17% 81–80 ✓
San Diego @ Santa Clara +20.1 150.5 91% 70–93 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairfield -2.1 147.3 39% 77–71 ✓
Iona @ Marist +4.5 131.0 70% 75–71 ✗
East Carolina @ UTSA +1.8 146.8 58% 80–79 ✗
Bradley @ Evansville -6.3 135.9 26% 80–74 ✓
Montana @ Northern Arizona +0.0 146.0 47% 83–80 ✗
Montana State @ Northern Colorado +5.5 145.6 76% 66–73 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pacific -16.0 149.3 14% 78–61 ✓
UT Arlington @ Seattle U +6.4 145.1 77% 65–67 ✓
Grand Canyon @ California Baptist -1.3 142.4 43% 71–85 ✗
South Dakota @ Oral Roberts -1.4 161.7 39% 75–74 ✓
Alabama @ Arkansas -3.3 163.8 33% 85–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ LSU -3.3 145.2 32% 72–70 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah +1.2 135.2 58% 84–70 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana -3.5 141.9 36% 79–74 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State -2.2 141.0 42% 72–67 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton -3.9 132.5 29% 65–49 ✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount -1.7 136.0 43% 72–66 ✓
UTEP @ New Mexico State +1.4 137.1 55% 66–63 ✗
San Diego State @ Colorado State +0.9 134.0 54% 63–68 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +3.8 141.9 66% 85–67 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +7.4 146.9 81% 64–69 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +5.2 138.1 72% 72–76 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Oregon State -1.4 132.9 43% 63–49 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arizona +3.6 151.1 68% 73–82 ✓
Northwestern @ Washington -1.5 139.8 46% 71–76 ✗
Rutgers @ Maryland +11.9 151.9 87% 81–90 ✓
George Washington @ St. Bonaventure +5.1 131.3 70% 62–52 ✗
Xavier @ Villanova +2.2 141.4 61% 68–80 ✓
Temple @ Memphis +14.6 158.1 88% 82–90 ✓
Arizona State @ Oklahoma State -1.7 140.7 44% 73–86 ✗
Wichita State @ South Florida +0.4 144.5 51% 75–70 ✗
Massachusetts @ La Salle +1.4 148.6 59% 78–55 ✗
Ohio State @ Nebraska -0.6 145.6 50% 71–79 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.