Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–12 on winners spread MAE 9.1 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas City @ Omaha +3.0 137.1 65% 61–70 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +9.4 143.4 81% 72–76 ✓
Lafayette @ American University +4.6 130.7 69% 69–71 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +0.6 132.4 56% 86–78 ✗
Army @ Colgate +5.0 146.3 69% 55–84 ✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock +2.9 134.0 60% 77–82 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +4.5 131.6 66% 53–74 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +1.6 151.4 57% 67–72 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +7.5 141.6 77% 63–78 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +4.0 130.1 64% 78–68 ✗
Tulane @ East Carolina +2.8 146.5 65% 64–73 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +4.0 158.6 69% 80–89 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +4.5 146.1 70% 70–79 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Manhattan +3.1 151.8 66% 74–90 ✓
Merrimack @ Marist +0.6 123.0 51% 75–53 ✗
Canisius @ Rider +8.6 142.1 80% 50–78 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena +9.8 140.9 83% 64–68 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State +11.4 149.5 85% 71–87 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard -4.2 151.9 30% 81–69 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State +10.4 146.0 86% 68–75 ✓
UTEP @ Sam Houston +0.7 146.2 54% 87–89 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech +2.5 131.0 63% 67–55 ✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee +0.3 138.6 51% 86–81 ✗
Michigan State @ Iowa -6.3 148.9 25% 91–84 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +6.6 145.4 77% 72–64 ✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris +7.1 149.0 78% 62–83 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +4.3 136.4 67% 63–68 ✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb +12.5 145.2 87% 75–81 ✓
Wichita State @ Rice +0.1 145.3 49% 63–59 ✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State -3.0 146.1 36% 75–82 ✗
Jackson State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -11.0 148.8 15% 76–69 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -2.6 136.3 36% 73–60 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +8.3 141.4 80% 67–76 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State +5.4 142.5 71% 64–61 ✗
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -14.1 128.8 13% 72–64 ✓
Seattle U @ Southern Utah -4.5 137.5 33% 62–39 ✓
Charlotte @ North Texas +13.7 129.8 87% 64–75 ✓
Alabama State @ Southern +5.1 136.6 69% 66–65 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC Davis -8.6 132.5 20% 88–59 ✓
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +13.8 146.8 88% 68–90 ✓
Denver @ St. Thomas +8.9 144.9 81% 62–80 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State +3.6 145.5 63% 55–69 ✓
Valparaiso @ UIC +3.0 147.2 64% 67–50 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Grambling +7.6 134.7 78% 51–67 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield +1.5 139.3 58% 64–76 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside +1.2 156.8 58% 79–94 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal Poly +13.0 159.1 88% 61–100 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +21.4 140.4 91% 63–70 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +9.5 130.2 83% 48–68 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +11.3 148.4 83% 64–85 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +9.5 129.9 82% 53–70 ✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware +3.9 145.8 67% 76–80 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +3.2 132.7 65% 69–74 ✓
Illinois State @ Belmont -0.4 149.3 47% 63–76 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +6.5 126.9 75% 55–77 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +7.3 146.3 79% 66–67 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +5.4 145.6 71% 76–79 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +5.6 145.4 72% 60–80 ✓
Ball State @ Miami (OH) +8.9 148.7 82% 66–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.