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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–3 on winners
spread MAE 12.4
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chattanooga
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+3.8 | 150.3 | 65% | 109–103 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Arkansas State
|
+7.3 | 152.5 | 75% | 78–103 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
Oklahoma State
|
+5.6 | 145.6 | 71% | 79–89 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
San Diego State
|
-3.7 | 139.0 | 39% | 95–68 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Santa Clara
|
+14.0 | 156.9 | 87% | 62–101 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Stanford
|
+5.9 | 147.0 | 71% | 70–87 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
American University
|
+0.1 | 129.4 | 50% | 83–72 | ✗ |
UAB
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+5.5 | 152.9 | 71% | 69–65 | ✗ |
Samford
@
George Mason
|
+8.2 | 143.3 | 78% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Dayton
|
+3.5 | 147.6 | 66% | 79–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.