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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–5 on winners
spread MAE 6.3
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.0 | 143.2 | 75% | 62–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 131.8 | 76% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 140.3 | 82% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 150.0 | 48% | 86–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 149.6 | 82% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 142.2 | 78% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 140.7 | 50% | 73–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.1 | 143.8 | 60% | 89–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 150.0 | 78% | 63–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 147.8 | 86% | 66–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.4 | 129.1 | 88% | 40–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.2 | 146.1 | 87% | 63–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 134.8 | 70% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 142.5 | 57% | 71–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 149.0 | 64% | 68–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.9 | 135.3 | 87% | 62–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 145.4 | 58% | 79–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 142.6 | 77% | 71–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 134.6 | 70% | 67–57 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.