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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–4 on winners spread MAE 8.5 16 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Purdue @ Alabama	+15.3	148.1	87%	87–80	✗
Alcorn State @ Howard	+3.4	144.5	61%	64–72	✓
Le Moyne @ Massachusetts	+8.6	141.2	77%	80–94	✓
Monmouth @ Seton Hall	+15.7	131.5	87%	58–70	✓
UMass Lowell @ Columbia	+20.6	142.9	90%	72–86	✓
Southern Miss @ Grambling	-0.5	147.0	50%	70–75	✗
Loyola Chicago @ Wichita State	+19.7	143.9	90%	74–95	✓
Florida International @ LSU	+23.6	149.1	91%	81–98	✓
Green Bay @ St. Thomas	+4.0	142.4	66%	61–80	✓
UL Monroe @ Houston Christian	+7.3	146.3	78%	61–72	✓
Charleston Southern @ Alabama A&M	+0.4	149.7	50%	64–68	✓
California @ Kansas State	+7.5	145.6	73%	96–99	✓
Central Michigan @ Coppin State	-7.7	138.3	22%	82–59	✓
Lehigh @ Rutgers	+14.8	136.2	86%	72–84	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Eastern Michigan	+14.3	156.1	86%	90–83	✗
Lindenwood @ Charleston Southern	+7.3	151.3	77%	83–77	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.