Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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69–21 on winners spread MAE 10.3 91 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana State @ Duke +22.2 147.8 90% 62–100 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Kentucky +21.6 140.2 90% 53–99 ✓
Louisiana @ McNeese +10.8 135.0 84% 62–88 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Jacksonville State — — — 67–74 —
Norfolk State @ Towson +7.1 128.9 70% 41–51 ✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston +8.9 143.3 80% 61–88 ✓
The Citadel @ West Georgia +8.9 142.2 80% 92–100 ✓
Stonehill @ Fairfield +13.7 139.0 86% 71–73 ✓
Fordham @ Iona +15.8 142.4 89% 71–76 ✓
Furman @ Northern Iowa +16.1 131.5 86% 54–70 ✓
UAlbany @ Rhode Island +17.2 134.6 88% 61–80 ✓
Hofstra @ Bucknell +5.2 136.0 70% 83–77 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Drake +3.2 133.6 59% 61–59 ✗
High Point @ UAB +2.4 146.7 49% 74–91 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Ole Miss +13.2 141.7 85% 60–82 ✓
Illinois State @ USC +7.5 144.1 78% 67–87 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Tulane +6.9 142.2 76% 85–63 ✗
Milwaukee @ Texas Tech +20.6 159.0 90% 63–80 ✓
Samford @ Arkansas +17.8 152.4 89% 75–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Creighton +7.9 131.6 76% 45–84 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Rice +7.2 141.8 76% 64–71 ✓
UCF @ Texas A&M +9.1 158.3 79% 86–74 ✗
Xavier @ Iowa +19.1 142.6 90% 62–81 ✓
Hampton @ Brown +3.5 144.0 62% 72–63 ✗
Northwestern @ DePaul -5.2 127.3 23% 81–79 ✓
Michigan @ TCU +1.5 159.4 43% 67–63 ✗
Colgate @ Illinois +22.5 152.2 91% 65–84 ✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina +20.3 149.1 91% 53–97 ✓
Cal Poly @ Montana +5.3 148.6 72% 82–90 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Georgia +21.8 143.3 90% 87–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ UC Davis +12.4 148.0 84% 73–77 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +18.9 143.0 89% 66–76 ✓
Providence @ Colorado +4.2 161.2 63% 88–97 ✓
Tarleton State @ Baylor +17.0 152.1 89% 81–94 ✓
Utah Tech @ Mississippi Valley State -12.6 142.2 15% 81–75 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA -6.8 144.0 25% 69–65 ✓
North Texas @ Saint Mary's +10.0 134.3 79% 49–80 ✓
Troy @ Loyola Marymount +6.6 138.9 69% 63–74 ✓
Western Illinois @ California Baptist +11.9 140.5 85% 59–69 ✓
Gonzaga @ Arizona State -1.7 137.9 41% 77–65 ✓
Washington @ Washington State -4.8 144.5 34% 81–69 ✓
Manhattan @ Hawai'i +12.8 150.1 84% 56–86 ✓
South Alabama @ Coppin State -11.5 134.7 15% 72–62 ✓
Ohio @ Louisville +24.8 154.0 91% 81–106 ✓
Marshall @ Virginia +7.1 143.0 69% 78–104 ✓
Clemson @ Georgetown +0.8 137.0 50% 74–79 ✓
Kansas City @ Texas +24.0 151.8 91% 55–71 ✓
Delaware State @ New Haven -1.8 127.3 39% 52–65 ✗
Vermont @ Northeastern +7.4 144.8 75% 85–74 ✗
Merrimack @ Boston University +12.4 140.3 86% 91–79 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Toledo +8.0 150.7 77% 83–90 ✓
Jacksonville @ VMI +2.8 144.0 62% 69–67 ✗
Chattanooga @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.1 151.0 67% 73–91 ✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State -4.4 162.1 32% 102–95 ✓
Penn State @ La Salle -10.1 140.5 17% 83–69 ✓
Stony Brook @ Yale +22.9 153.4 90% 79–86 ✓
Princeton @ Kansas +20.6 144.6 90% 57–76 ✓
Austin Peay @ UNC Greensboro -6.2 138.7 26% 69–63 ✓
UTSA @ Denver +15.6 146.3 88% 84–79 ✗
New Hampshire @ George Mason +18.3 143.7 89% 44–61 ✓
Mercer @ Winthrop +7.0 148.1 75% 69–105 ✓
Wofford @ Bellarmine +4.3 136.3 65% 94–86 ✗
Maryland @ Marquette +13.3 141.2 84% 89–82 ✗
UIC @ Chicago State -3.6 153.2 38% 67–63 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Air Force -4.3 144.8 34% 76–61 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Stonehill +2.5 130.5 60% 74–63 ✗
Butler @ SMU +2.7 149.0 58% 85–87 ✓
Boston College @ Temple +14.2 139.2 85% 76–71 ✗
Harvard @ Army +4.2 151.5 59% 75–52 ✗
St. Thomas @ Southeast Missouri State +11.0 142.9 85% 84–72 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Vanderbilt +24.9 158.8 91% 75–104 ✓
East Tennessee State @ North Alabama +1.9 140.4 59% 78–74 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Queens University +8.0 147.4 78% 64–81 ✓
Binghamton @ Longwood +7.3 140.6 75% 82–90 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Mississippi State +11.5 139.7 84% 68–75 ✓
Wright State @ Radford +3.7 141.4 65% 92–59 ✗
Drexel @ Syracuse +12.5 137.5 84% 50–80 ✓
UTEP @ Utah State +14.3 139.5 87% 51–75 ✓
Montana State @ Boise State +16.3 141.7 88% 58–62 ✓
Idaho @ UC San Diego +9.9 144.9 81% 67–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ St. Bonaventure +6.8 145.4 74% 80–84 ✓
Morgan State @ Mercyhurst +8.4 133.8 78% 72–86 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ NJIT +9.6 137.9 81% 81–93 ✓
Texas Southern @ Texas State +12.7 147.9 88% 67–77 ✓
North Dakota @ UC Riverside +12.5 144.3 87% 76–74 ✗
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +2.7 145.5 63% 85–73 ✗
Nicholls @ Murray State +15.6 141.0 86% 79–99 ✓
William & Mary @ St. John's +3.6 158.8 58% 60–93 ✓
Bowling Green @ Davidson +4.9 131.9 66% 87–91 ✓
Missouri State @ UT Arlington +4.7 143.5 70% 49–67 ✓
Old Dominion @ George Washington +19.7 142.4 90% 73–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.