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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–10 on winners spread MAE 9.6 56 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
McNeese @ Michigan	+21.6	154.4	90%	71–112	✓
Kent State @ Purdue	+20.2	156.8	91%	60–101	✓
Cornell @ Michigan State	+19.7	157.5	90%	97–114	✓
New Haven @ Vanderbilt	+25.0	142.0	91%	53–96	✓
Long Island University @ Georgia	+22.8	166.3	91%	74–89	✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State	+8.4	159.1	80%	81–84	✓
Belmont @ Indiana State	-9.4	150.9	18%	80–81	✗
Delaware State @ Rutgers	+14.7	136.0	87%	50–65	✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield	+4.3	139.2	71%	70–66	✗
Lipscomb @ Cincinnati	+5.6	141.0	68%	62–89	✓
Oakland @ Wright State	+2.9	152.0	63%	73–88	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris	+3.5	147.2	69%	79–77	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State	+1.0	160.2	48%	86–99	✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's	-8.0	148.6	27%	59–66	✗
Manhattan @ Rider	-1.7	137.0	41%	74–71	✓
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T	-4.9	138.7	34%	87–78	✓
Drexel @ Charleston	+7.3	143.1	79%	63–72	✓
Campbell @ Hofstra	+12.4	146.2	88%	72–86	✓
Stony Brook @ Hampton	+1.0	138.8	57%	59–62	✓
Northeastern @ Elon	+5.7	153.8	75%	91–103	✓
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State	-6.1	137.3	31%	67–78	✗
Alabama State @ Mississippi State	+12.9	150.9	88%	56–94	✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State	+0.8	141.0	54%	76–61	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M	-7.6	143.4	23%	75–48	✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech	+1.6	125.5	57%	63–75	✓
Houston Christian @ Iowa State	+25.9	148.5	91%	61–89	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Houston	+19.4	136.9	90%	60–69	✓
Yale @ Alabama	+13.9	166.2	86%	78–102	✓
James Madison @ Arkansas	+21.9	158.3	91%	74–103	✓
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa	+12.2	128.3	86%	48–58	✓
Evansville @ Bradley	+12.6	142.5	88%	68–76	✓
Alcorn State @ Ole Miss	+21.9	144.0	91%	43–79	✓
Southern Miss @ LSU	+16.8	152.3	88%	62–90	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M	+21.0	162.0	91%	82–111	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Oklahoma	+24.9	149.3	91%	69–93	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee	+1.4	152.1	57%	55–77	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Oklahoma State	+18.6	156.7	91%	77–103	✓
Jackson State @ TCU	+24.0	140.8	91%	64–115	✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley	+9.4	140.6	82%	66–73	✓
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington	+2.0	133.2	64%	69–63	✗
LSU New Orleans @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+7.4	145.1	81%	85–69	✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+3.8	135.2	68%	76–71	✗
South Dakota State @ Arizona	+24.2	153.2	91%	71–99	✓
Illinois State @ Drake	-1.0	142.8	43%	73–56	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Minnesota	+19.8	135.9	91%	43–60	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech	+10.8	147.8	87%	66–80	✓
Queens University @ Auburn	+18.4	166.6	89%	65–106	✓
Utah @ Washington	+14.6	151.7	87%	65–74	✓
Vermont @ Princeton	-1.8	133.5	38%	69–75	✗
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word	+8.7	140.0	80%	70–79	✓
Ohio @ Central Michigan	-5.1	145.7	28%	80–64	✓
Wyoming @ Air Force	-13.4	137.2	15%	68–56	✓
Howard @ Northwestern	+16.6	140.4	89%	60–80	✓
UAlbany @ South Carolina	+19.1	144.9	90%	67–96	✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel	-12.5	139.0	15%	74–49	✓
Western Michigan @ Toledo	+8.9	153.1	82%	79–84	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.