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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–13 on winners spread MAE 8.8 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut	+8.8	133.5	82%	69–76	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+13.8	149.8	88%	71–69	✗
Mercyhurst @ Long Island University	+8.0	138.6	81%	58–60	✓
New Haven @ Le Moyne	+3.2	131.9	64%	47–73	✓
New Hampshire @ NJIT	+0.7	133.7	49%	76–80	✓
Binghamton @ Vermont	+16.6	148.1	91%	59–60	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Northeastern	-2.8	138.0	35%	87–78	✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T	-3.1	157.8	32%	69–64	✓
Hampton @ Campbell	+4.8	141.5	70%	72–86	✓
William & Mary @ Monmouth	-4.0	145.0	30%	70–81	✗
Stony Brook @ Drexel	+1.0	131.8	54%	37–56	✓
App State @ Georgia State	-1.5	136.7	44%	52–50	✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina	+3.2	141.3	63%	70–66	✗
West Georgia @ North Florida	-2.5	155.6	38%	85–73	✓
Queens University @ Jacksonville	-1.0	152.8	46%	77–51	✓
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky	+3.9	138.2	67%	80–88	✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson	-11.4	144.1	15%	83–91	✗
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine	+0.2	149.5	53%	78–84	✓
Austin Peay @ Florida Gulf Coast	+1.9	148.1	61%	82–71	✗
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech	-5.6	131.5	29%	72–56	✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State	-3.6	133.3	34%	76–68	✓
Delaware @ Sam Houston	+11.3	140.7	86%	60–72	✓
Denver @ South Dakota State	+4.7	160.8	69%	79–87	✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City	-8.0	141.4	20%	97–73	✓
North Dakota @ Omaha	+3.6	142.2	65%	79–90	✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss	+9.3	142.5	83%	70–80	✓
Weber State @ Northern Arizona	-2.4	144.1	43%	78–65	✓
Idaho State @ Northern Colorado	+2.4	149.5	63%	72–85	✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley	+20.5	149.5	91%	72–89	✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State	+8.3	144.2	82%	84–80	✗
Rutgers @ Illinois	+20.7	145.6	91%	55–81	✓
Tennessee State @ Western Illinois	-7.4	139.8	25%	90–68	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana	-6.1	139.3	26%	84–76	✓
Little Rock @ SIU Edwardsville	+5.4	131.3	72%	73–70	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	+1.2	136.6	57%	61–71	✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana	+4.4	135.0	70%	79–85	✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara	+2.2	146.6	63%	93–86	✗
Montana @ Idaho	+4.7	146.5	70%	79–73	✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington	-4.3	148.3	29%	68–64	✓
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP	-8.1	132.0	23%	80–83	✗
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State	+2.5	149.0	65%	64–80	✓
Pepperdine @ San Diego	+4.5	139.6	68%	63–83	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield	+1.5	146.0	62%	66–67	✓
Seattle U @ Oregon State	-3.8	139.6	34%	55–68	✗
Pacific @ Portland	-2.9	139.6	39%	89–90	✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge	+4.7	159.5	71%	90–95	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine	+10.0	140.8	84%	64–74	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego	+13.3	160.0	88%	88–71	✗
Utah Tech @ California Baptist	+5.0	139.3	71%	72–84	✓
Ohio State @ Oregon	-0.0	149.2	51%	72–62	✓
San Francisco @ Loyola Marymount	+1.2	134.3	56%	82–84	✓
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga	+16.5	156.9	88%	77–89	✓
Miami (OH) @ Toledo	-2.8	157.2	36%	87–73	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.