Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–52 on winners spread MAE 9.6 135 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rider @ Fairfield +10.9 138.4 87% 62–68 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +13.8 165.1 89% 74–97 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -4.5 143.6 33% 84–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay +10.6 157.1 84% 59–75 ✓
Merrimack @ Siena +5.1 132.3 68% 63–59 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's -2.0 136.6 42% 65–70 ✗
Niagara @ Iona +11.3 140.7 87% 53–71 ✓
Marist @ Sacred Heart -7.9 131.9 24% 76–72 ✓
Canisius @ Manhattan +3.4 140.2 65% 70–64 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee +1.3 146.9 58% 85–67 ✗
Akron @ Bowling Green +0.5 162.4 50% 77–67 ✗
USC @ Minnesota +1.5 142.0 59% 70–69 ✗
UNLV @ Colorado State +9.2 147.7 83% 62–70 ✓
Nebraska @ Indiana +2.7 140.2 58% 83–77 ✗
Boston College @ Louisville +19.1 142.6 90% 62–75 ✓
Tennessee @ Florida +3.5 144.4 66% 67–91 ✓
Kansas @ West Virginia -3.7 135.9 32% 75–86 ✗
VCU @ George Mason +1.5 145.7 55% 80–86 ✓
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +7.4 134.7 78% 81–77 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Miami +14.5 150.0 88% 81–91 ✓
NC State @ Florida State -2.9 155.4 33% 113–69 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +16.4 135.2 90% 60–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan +18.2 158.6 90% 91–88 ✗
Houston @ Baylor +1.1 144.2 46% 77–55 ✗
LSU @ Vanderbilt +12.7 159.7 87% 73–84 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +4.1 137.9 68% 72–69 ✗
Army @ Boston University +6.4 144.6 75% 91–100 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan -1.9 140.6 43% 62–79 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Wagner +0.7 132.4 54% 70–69 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne +0.9 144.0 58% 69–59 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ New Haven +3.3 130.3 62% 55–65 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +6.2 137.1 75% 74–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ The Citadel -4.7 145.1 27% 77–79 ✗
Troy @ Louisiana -8.0 136.8 19% 90–70 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina +0.1 132.4 49% 62–67 ✓
Penn State @ Purdue +17.6 146.9 91% 85–93 ✓
SMU @ Duke +12.6 158.6 84% 75–82 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina -3.8 164.0 37% 75–70 ✓
Dartmouth @ Cornell +3.7 161.5 68% 102–91 ✗
Lehigh @ Colgate +9.4 142.9 85% 78–77 ✗
Rhode Island @ Davidson +3.2 132.8 66% 70–45 ✗
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate -1.3 149.5 46% 71–50 ✓
High Point @ Charleston Southern -7.4 156.9 30% 84–82 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +1.6 145.3 58% 90–73 ✗
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh +1.6 136.2 54% 83–72 ✗
Lafayette @ Navy +12.8 140.3 87% 50–76 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota -0.3 166.1 50% 72–82 ✗
North Dakota State @ Omaha -5.8 146.7 27% 78–76 ✓
Yale @ Princeton -11.2 140.2 16% 60–76 ✗
Buffalo @ Ohio +0.7 149.5 53% 80–91 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia +8.8 142.1 83% 79–54 ✗
Brown @ Pennsylvania +5.3 138.1 72% 73–81 ✓
Chicago State @ Stonehill +1.4 129.1 56% 82–85 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -5.9 143.8 25% 73–68 ✓
Maine @ NJIT +1.5 129.7 53% 74–70 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany +2.0 134.6 59% 46–71 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel -5.6 140.4 27% 58–64 ✗
Towson @ Northeastern +1.1 134.3 55% 87–78 ✗
Monmouth @ Hofstra +10.7 139.5 86% 64–67 ✓
Wofford @ Mercer +6.6 149.9 77% 97–109 ✓
VMI @ Furman +12.3 144.5 88% 48–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +2.6 146.0 61% 71–87 ✓
Queens University @ North Florida -7.3 164.7 23% 89–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine +4.4 143.6 69% 82–73 ✗
Austin Peay @ Stetson -10.1 141.7 18% 81–69 ✓
Stanford @ Virginia +10.9 144.6 84% 55–70 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford +2.4 145.6 66% 91–72 ✗
Villanova @ Marquette -8.1 138.6 20% 76–73 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ George Washington +16.6 150.1 90% 66–101 ✓
South Florida @ Tulsa +7.6 162.9 76% 93–78 ✗
Kansas State @ Arizona State +1.0 161.3 58% 84–87 ✓
Presbyterian @ Longwood +2.1 136.0 60% 70–77 ✓
New Mexico @ Air Force -15.1 131.1 13% 91–49 ✓
Kent State @ Central Michigan -7.8 152.8 22% 85–87 ✗
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +12.2 151.7 87% 60–70 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +11.2 150.2 87% 82–83 ✓
West Georgia @ Jacksonville -1.8 140.8 44% 43–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +4.6 129.3 70% 72–82 ✓
Delaware @ Louisiana Tech +1.8 122.9 58% 68–70 ✓
Ball State @ Massachusetts +10.7 140.6 86% 71–79 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M +5.3 159.5 70% 76–83 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -2.0 143.2 41% 69–71 ✗
Liberty @ Sam Houston +2.2 148.7 61% 82–74 ✗
Arizona @ TCU -5.5 148.0 24% 86–73 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State +17.2 161.5 89% 71–83 ✓
Valparaiso @ Murray State +11.3 146.8 87% 79–92 ✓
Saint Louis @ La Salle -15.0 148.2 14% 84–72 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama State +11.2 151.6 86% 75–64 ✗
Holy Cross @ American University +7.1 136.0 76% 84–73 ✗
Providence @ Xavier -1.0 162.0 49% 84–97 ✗
California @ Virginia Tech +5.1 145.6 73% 75–78 ✓
Saint Francis @ Long Island University +15.1 148.8 90% 63–67 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +11.2 146.4 87% 60–86 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +4.5 145.5 69% 69–70 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State -5.8 142.5 25% 73–81 ✗
Lipscomb @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.0 152.9 56% 84–77 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky +0.7 149.2 55% 75–79 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +11.4 146.0 87% 76–92 ✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP -2.8 142.6 40% 68–56 ✓
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -5.2 126.3 30% 66–64 ✓
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore -3.0 127.6 33% 57–69 ✗
Samford @ Chattanooga +0.0 141.2 50% 79–88 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State -5.7 132.8 27% 78–79 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Western Illinois -2.7 139.5 34% 59–54 ✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood +8.9 141.7 82% 82–74 ✗
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -2.9 138.1 36% 70–74 ✗
South Carolina State @ Morgan State +2.0 142.9 62% 67–72 ✓
UIC @ Illinois State +13.7 136.7 88% 63–59 ✗
Washington State @ Saint Mary's +14.8 140.4 88% 82–88 ✓
Tulane @ UTSA -6.5 138.4 24% 85–52 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -4.6 140.4 33% 88–77 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +3.9 138.2 65% 67–70 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +8.5 138.6 81% 70–74 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -0.6 156.9 48% 78–84 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +16.8 137.0 89% 61–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Portland State +10.6 149.1 85% 69–96 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho +1.5 139.8 56% 89–92 ✓
Montana @ Eastern Washington -2.6 155.4 38% 65–66 ✗
Florida International @ Missouri State +1.8 146.4 61% 71–79 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State +3.8 142.3 66% 82–88 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama A&M +9.7 142.5 85% 64–62 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Southern -2.9 157.0 39% 74–66 ✓
Grambling @ Bethune-Cookman -3.0 146.5 39% 65–74 ✗
Arkansas @ Auburn +1.2 168.8 54% 73–95 ✓
Wake Forest @ North Carolina +10.1 145.6 84% 84–87 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +0.8 131.9 51% 69–75 ✓
Belmont @ Drake -6.3 145.2 25% 78–76 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Prairie View A&M +14.9 149.2 89% 69–70 ✓
Clemson @ Notre Dame +0.6 131.5 54% 76–61 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook -6.7 129.0 23% 75–71 ✓
Houston Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +15.0 133.2 88% 67–85 ✓
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans +1.5 148.5 60% 90–77 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ East Texas A&M -5.5 140.2 31% 69–77 ✗
Missouri @ Ole Miss -0.0 142.5 49% 69–76 ✗
Seton Hall @ Georgetown -4.0 133.9 30% 76–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.