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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–9 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
@
Michigan
|
+16.0 | 156.1 | 89% | 72–86 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Iowa State
|
+11.1 | 152.2 | 86% | 57–87 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Florida
|
+11.2 | 153.5 | 85% | 61–79 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
+3.4 | 139.2 | 71% | 80–76 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Duquesne
|
-12.1 | 160.7 | 15% | 81–77 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Kent State
|
-4.5 | 165.2 | 31% | 107–101 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+11.1 | 148.0 | 86% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
St. John's
|
+9.6 | 137.1 | 81% | 60–65 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Miami
|
+13.4 | 156.8 | 88% | 65–63 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Ohio
|
+8.4 | 143.6 | 82% | 77–80 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Western Michigan
|
-3.9 | 149.6 | 37% | 72–54 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Central Michigan
|
+1.0 | 137.1 | 50% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Oklahoma
@
South Carolina
|
+1.3 | 146.1 | 57% | 76–85 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Butler
|
+9.2 | 143.0 | 80% | 80–87 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
UIC
|
+8.2 | 131.9 | 81% | 49–76 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
TCU
|
+4.8 | 155.1 | 70% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Iowa
|
+16.8 | 138.9 | 90% | 62–68 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Wyoming
|
+2.8 | 143.7 | 64% | 81–65 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-3.1 | 135.8 | 38% | 50–66 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Oregon
|
-8.4 | 133.3 | 18% | 68–52 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Baylor
|
-1.0 | 149.5 | 45% | 92–73 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Missouri
|
-2.8 | 162.3 | 39% | 74–72 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Kansas State
|
+6.5 | 158.2 | 76% | 78–81 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Wake Forest
|
-0.6 | 148.4 | 47% | 91–79 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Colorado State
|
+16.6 | 133.5 | 90% | 52–81 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Ole Miss
|
-1.5 | 151.5 | 46% | 78–66 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+1.6 | 170.4 | 55% | 68–93 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
UCLA
|
-5.2 | 140.6 | 28% | 67–69 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Nevada
|
+12.3 | 140.7 | 88% | 54–87 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Utah State
|
+16.0 | 155.6 | 90% | 86–76 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
Colorado
|
-5.7 | 149.0 | 30% | 75–69 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Boston University
|
+4.1 | 142.6 | 68% | 73–77 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+0.2 | 139.7 | 50% | 83–69 | ✗ |
Samford
@
Wofford
|
+4.6 | 148.3 | 69% | 78–88 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
VMI
|
-2.1 | 145.4 | 39% | 85–78 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
La Salle
|
-8.0 | 134.0 | 22% | 64–67 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Winthrop
|
+11.4 | 155.6 | 88% | 75–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.