Tire tracks all across your back - I can see you've had your fun. "Crosstown Traffic"- Jimi Hendrix
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–16 on winners spread MAE 8.0 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Maryland @ Illinois +18.7 146.2 91% 70–89 ✓
Notre Dame @ North Carolina +9.2 139.2 81% 69–91 ✓
Murray State @ Drake -5.4 152.6 26% 90–101 ✗
Indiana State @ Bradley +6.2 149.4 78% 68–75 ✓
Colgate @ American University +0.4 142.3 53% 66–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Richmond +3.2 138.5 67% 69–68 ✗
Fordham @ Davidson +5.8 135.0 72% 63–68 ✓
Tulane @ Florida Atlantic +11.8 146.2 86% 74–79 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +1.4 141.1 61% 87–84 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +13.0 149.2 88% 56–91 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian -0.5 141.4 49% 83–87 ✗
Georgetown @ Villanova +11.7 143.1 87% 51–66 ✓
Xavier @ Creighton +7.1 147.6 77% 93–94 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Boston College -1.6 133.6 46% 62–65 ✗
Holy Cross @ Navy +8.1 131.2 79% 68–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Wright State +15.0 152.6 90% 85–79 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy -0.3 149.8 49% 83–76 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +16.0 165.6 90% 103–85 ✗
Furman @ The Citadel -10.4 139.8 15% 75–77 ✗
Western Carolina @ Mercer +13.0 154.0 88% 76–88 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga -6.2 141.5 29% 67–66 ✓
Troy @ Old Dominion -5.4 150.6 26% 83–77 ✓
Texas @ Kentucky +6.1 151.3 73% 80–85 ✓
North Alabama @ Queens University +13.2 152.8 88% 62–87 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +14.2 142.0 88% 60–77 ✓
Liberty @ Western Kentucky -1.9 144.0 43% 76–69 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston +6.2 156.8 76% 87–93 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Valparaiso +1.0 137.5 55% 63–69 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +13.8 131.9 89% 62–81 ✓
Temple @ Rice -2.3 140.2 41% 69–65 ✓
Memphis @ Tulsa +8.7 145.8 80% 66–83 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +4.2 155.8 68% 68–64 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +4.0 141.3 70% 64–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -13.8 150.0 14% 70–84 ✗
Cincinnati @ Arizona +14.1 140.9 88% 51–77 ✓
Washington @ Nebraska +12.6 141.0 86% 66–76 ✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +22.7 143.6 91% 60–84 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +6.1 127.5 71% 54–59 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico +13.0 138.4 87% 74–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Arizona State +1.2 140.2 58% 75–63 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse +1.3 146.9 57% 76–74 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M +9.8 157.4 84% 68–88 ✓
Washington State @ San Diego -1.3 146.7 46% 92–96 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Seattle U +4.5 135.0 71% 59–69 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +5.3 134.7 73% 64–73 ✓
Oregon State @ Saint Mary's +15.8 140.8 90% 51–81 ✓
Northwestern @ USC +6.6 147.1 75% 74–68 ✗
San Diego State @ Grand Canyon -0.2 141.9 50% 69–70 ✗
UL Monroe @ Marshall +14.1 152.8 89% 60–115 ✓
Louisiana @ App State +8.1 128.0 77% 58–72 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +12.0 150.9 87% 74–79 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Austin Peay +5.4 147.3 75% 62–83 ✓
Central Arkansas @ West Georgia -3.6 147.9 35% 86–65 ✓
Vermont @ UMass Lowell -3.0 143.7 38% 77–68 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +6.9 139.5 75% 74–87 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +9.2 132.3 85% 82–88 ✓
UAlbany @ Maine -2.5 127.2 39% 49–52 ✗
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +3.1 140.2 63% 81–88 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.