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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–17 on winners spread MAE 9.7 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Colorado @ Iowa State	+16.4	153.0	89%	67–97	✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern	+4.8	157.4	69%	84–75	✗
Longwood @ South Carolina Upstate	+0.5	144.1	54%	60–65	✓
New Haven @ Mercyhurst	+3.2	122.8	63%	51–70	✓
Le Moyne @ Long Island University	+4.5	141.5	70%	61–83	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill	+1.1	130.1	57%	57–58	✓
UMBC @ Vermont	+4.6	139.1	69%	55–64	✓
Stony Brook @ Campbell	+2.5	148.6	64%	81–69	✗
William & Mary @ Elon	+0.2	157.1	50%	76–79	✓
Hampton @ Drexel	+4.2	129.5	68%	51–58	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth	+5.9	141.2	76%	81–83	✓
Charleston @ Hofstra	+5.1	147.3	71%	66–64	✗
VMI @ The Citadel	+3.6	141.0	66%	56–80	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer	+12.4	154.7	88%	77–95	✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State	+11.0	145.4	87%	90–88	✗
James Madison @ Troy	+10.9	152.8	85%	73–64	✗
Stetson @ North Florida	+0.4	158.3	52%	84–77	✗
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast	+9.8	150.0	84%	64–72	✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville	-3.7	140.9	31%	65–70	✗
Liberty @ Middle Tennessee	+0.1	138.5	48%	81–65	✗
Central Connecticut @ Wagner	-0.4	140.4	45%	62–55	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State	+0.2	132.2	51%	65–67	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis	+0.9	145.2	54%	65–92	✓
Penn State @ Northwestern	+8.9	145.8	81%	73–94	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota	+4.7	152.1	72%	69–77	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas	+11.2	150.1	87%	81–80	✗
Georgia State @ Louisiana	-3.2	125.3	37%	72–82	✗
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama	+3.2	140.1	65%	48–53	✓
App State @ Southern Miss	+0.1	132.4	49%	70–63	✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona	-2.3	143.2	40%	86–92	✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington	+10.5	139.6	86%	61–80	✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-1.8	153.3	43%	83–55	✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian	-0.1	140.0	53%	76–70	✓
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana	-2.7	141.2	34%	73–60	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois	-4.7	122.9	30%	76–68	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Western Illinois	-7.9	135.4	22%	78–74	✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee State	+6.6	147.7	76%	63–70	✓
Washington @ Illinois	+12.7	148.8	88%	66–75	✓
Presbyterian @ High Point	+15.0	148.6	88%	81–84	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson	-0.1	127.6	48%	82–73	✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado	+1.6	148.4	58%	83–91	✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Bakersfield	+1.4	156.9	56%	104–79	✗
Long Beach State @ UC Riverside	+0.7	143.6	52%	61–71	✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge	+0.2	153.9	50%	78–94	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego	+5.7	145.2	71%	62–48	✗
Montana State @ Sacramento State	-5.9	148.6	26%	80–83	✗
Montana @ Portland State	+3.3	140.6	69%	64–60	✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine	-1.1	133.2	48%	76–87	✗
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe	-10.2	154.2	16%	79–76	✓
Princeton @ Cornell	+4.0	154.4	68%	64–87	✓
Kent State @ Akron	+12.3	163.9	86%	52–69	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State	+9.2	156.6	82%	76–85	✓
Siena @ Niagara	-10.5	124.6	16%	82–79	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.