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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–13 on winners spread MAE 7.6 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Temple @ Florida Atlantic	+5.9	143.0	73%	73–77	✓
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern	-3.8	158.5	30%	84–86	✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Radford	+4.5	149.2	69%	59–71	✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb	-12.6	135.9	14%	77–71	✓
High Point @ Presbyterian	-12.1	144.8	15%	79–73	✓
Mercyhurst @ Central Connecticut	+1.9	135.8	57%	78–80	✓
New Haven @ Wagner	+2.9	131.2	60%	62–65	✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill	+3.9	134.1	65%	77–103	✓
Chicago State @ Long Island University	+11.0	139.7	87%	56–73	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne	+4.8	136.8	67%	59–76	✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont	+8.6	146.0	82%	64–66	✓
Campbell @ Drexel	+1.1	140.4	58%	60–65	✓
Elon @ Towson	+4.4	138.2	71%	56–58	✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Wilmington	+11.4	139.9	87%	65–88	✓
Stony Brook @ Monmouth	+1.9	139.2	61%	69–82	✓
Northeastern @ William & Mary	+12.0	155.0	88%	77–84	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga	+3.7	150.9	67%	85–80	✗
Stetson @ Jacksonville	+3.8	136.9	65%	85–89	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida	-4.4	155.5	27%	70–76	✗
Delaware @ Jacksonville State	+3.9	134.6	65%	70–80	✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State	-2.0	151.7	39%	65–74	✗
Missouri State @ Louisiana Tech	+1.4	133.8	58%	70–72	✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee	+7.1	135.1	75%	67–77	✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky	+3.4	145.7	69%	70–93	✓
Michigan State @ Purdue	+6.7	143.3	74%	76–74	✗
Denver @ Oral Roberts	-5.0	149.9	26%	80–102	✗
South Dakota State @ Kansas City	-11.6	144.1	14%	73–59	✓
VMI @ Samford	+15.7	149.7	90%	61–80	✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley	+12.9	140.1	87%	72–79	✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern	+5.5	147.2	73%	87–92	✓
Florida A&M @ Southern	+6.1	145.4	77%	82–71	✗
Western Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+11.5	132.2	86%	47–67	✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State	+2.3	146.6	61%	79–71	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood	+5.9	138.2	70%	71–67	✗
Morehead State @ Little Rock	-0.1	139.5	47%	76–70	✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin	+8.3	129.1	79%	49–64	✓
Wichita State @ Memphis	+0.6	142.5	51%	88–82	✗
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara	+10.0	146.5	86%	59–70	✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas	+3.0	152.0	65%	62–84	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis	-0.8	142.8	49%	77–73	✓
Portland State @ Montana State	+1.7	136.2	60%	69–84	✓
Sacramento State @ Montana	+7.1	152.3	76%	73–81	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho	+9.7	142.2	84%	58–78	✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington	+0.9	153.9	53%	72–82	✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech	+4.9	137.3	70%	81–85	✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston	+8.1	155.3	80%	67–100	✓
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M	+4.1	154.7	67%	76–85	✓
Long Beach State @ Cal Poly	+5.1	152.4	71%	92–102	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge	+0.9	149.0	56%	68–67	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego	+15.0	143.3	90%	72–84	✓
UT Arlington @ California Baptist	+4.2	128.9	68%	56–68	✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan	-11.1	159.7	16%	69–67	✓
Yale @ Cornell	-4.6	162.1	27%	69–72	✗
Quinnipiac @ Niagara	-7.4	129.4	22%	76–78	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.