Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LEM -198 FDU +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -6.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -4.5 (+12.5) | 138.3 (-3.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -3.8 (+13.2) | 138.0 (-3.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -4.8 (+12.2) | 136.8 (-1.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -5.2 (+11.8) | 137.8 (-2.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2026 | LEM 87 – 74 FDU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | FDU 78 – 74 LEM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FDU 91 – 86 LEM |
| Mar 7, 2024 | LEM 82 – 61 FDU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FDU 68 – 58 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-12 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#291) | -11.7 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#300) | -2.29 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#308) | -2.89 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#296) | 0.414 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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