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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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91–46 on winners spread MAE 10.3 137 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Dayton @ George Washington	+4.8	151.4	69%	68–66	✗
Rider @ Iona	+12.2	139.8	88%	58–80	✓
Brown @ Columbia	+7.3	139.0	77%	62–80	✓
Siena @ Fairfield	+0.4	139.1	52%	58–72	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Sacred Heart	+1.2	142.2	58%	69–77	✓
Merrimack @ Canisius	-10.2	124.5	15%	62–67	✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's	+8.7	145.2	81%	65–75	✓
Harvard @ Princeton	-3.3	131.8	35%	58–56	✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania	+6.0	146.3	74%	71–80	✓
UL Monroe @ Troy	+16.2	154.1	90%	65–80	✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State	-0.1	142.7	49%	81–73	✓
Michigan @ Illinois	-0.2	162.2	47%	84–70	✓
Akron @ Kent State	-2.9	160.8	37%	92–70	✓
App State @ Texas State	-0.5	136.5	50%	57–60	✗
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison	+5.4	141.0	70%	69–68	✗
Southern Miss @ South Alabama	+6.3	143.0	75%	68–55	✗
Georgia Southern @ Marshall	+8.9	159.9	83%	99–82	✗
Louisiana @ Arkansas State	+13.1	141.9	88%	58–81	✓
Colorado @ Houston	+12.4	137.9	87%	62–102	✓
Virginia @ Duke	+12.8	141.2	86%	51–77	✓
Seton Hall @ UConn	+12.6	133.9	87%	67–71	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Rhode Island	+3.7	133.6	64%	61–55	✗
Iowa @ Penn State	-8.8	139.4	18%	69–71	✗
NC State @ Notre Dame	-5.1	152.4	31%	90–96	✗
Florida State @ Georgia Tech	-4.6	151.4	31%	80–71	✓
Boston University @ American University	+2.8	144.2	62%	68–65	✗
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross	+2.4	145.0	61%	76–62	✗
Fordham @ VCU	+13.0	140.4	88%	63–82	✓
Army @ Lafayette	+4.1	142.1	66%	77–83	✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris	+14.4	153.4	89%	64–83	✓
Chicago State @ Wagner	+4.3	135.1	68%	61–80	✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut	+10.3	147.7	86%	64–69	✓
Le Moyne @ New Haven	-0.9	129.8	45%	59–66	✗
Missouri @ Mississippi State	+0.4	151.8	53%	88–64	✗
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee	+3.9	144.6	69%	85–86	✓
UMBC @ UMass Lowell	-1.6	140.9	42%	84–60	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University	+10.8	138.5	87%	60–74	✓
Georgetown @ Xavier	+3.7	149.5	66%	84–91	✓
Louisville @ Clemson	-2.5	145.3	40%	75–80	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ IU Indianapolis	-1.7	158.0	43%	87–81	✓
Bucknell @ Lehigh	+5.7	140.1	72%	79–89	✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason	+5.1	141.2	71%	58–71	✓
Oklahoma State @ Cincinnati	+6.8	149.6	76%	68–91	✓
Oregon @ Northwestern	+5.8	139.9	70%	62–63	✓
UCLA @ Minnesota	-1.9	132.8	43%	73–78	✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate	+12.6	145.4	87%	61–71	✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville	+3.1	144.5	65%	92–75	✗
San Diego State @ New Mexico	+4.1	146.5	68%	76–81	✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota	-1.8	148.8	42%	70–75	✗
Youngstown State @ Green Bay	+2.5	141.6	61%	63–85	✓
Massachusetts @ Bowling Green	+5.0	150.6	70%	62–81	✓
Central Michigan @ Buffalo	+6.2	148.5	77%	75–70	✗
Mercyhurst @ Stonehill	-2.2	133.1	35%	75–72	✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany	+4.0	136.4	66%	61–84	✓
Maine @ Binghamton	-1.5	129.5	37%	67–74	✗
William & Mary @ North Carolina A&T	-4.4	155.5	33%	91–88	✓
Campbell @ Towson	+4.2	133.5	67%	67–71	✓
The Citadel @ Wofford	+11.8	144.1	87%	93–90	✗
VMI @ Chattanooga	+11.7	147.1	87%	79–86	✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas	+5.3	158.8	73%	79–84	✓
North Alabama @ West Georgia	+4.7	145.1	69%	63–75	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Stetson	-2.2	147.5	38%	63–78	✗
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine	-4.9	151.0	27%	97–111	✗
Tennessee State @ UT Martin	+3.4	137.2	66%	67–42	✗
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky	+1.4	151.0	54%	77–91	✓
Boston College @ Miami	+14.3	142.0	88%	54–76	✓
Radford @ Longwood	+0.5	152.4	52%	74–90	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland	+7.1	158.0	77%	95–89	✗
Elon @ Monmouth	+3.4	148.8	67%	57–73	✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State	+10.4	152.0	85%	61–82	✓
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech	+1.7	140.3	59%	84–76	✗
UTEP @ Western Kentucky	+10.9	140.4	85%	65–97	✓
Utah @ Arizona State	+6.8	147.3	74%	60–73	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern	+0.4	149.4	50%	82–79	✗
South Carolina @ Georgia	+12.6	159.6	87%	68–87	✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State	+6.0	143.7	71%	82–73	✗
Nebraska @ USC	-5.2	143.0	26%	82–67	✓
Wisconsin @ Washington	+1.9	147.1	57%	90–73	✗
Air Force @ Wyoming	+20.5	141.8	90%	62–66	✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville	-6.5	138.0	23%	79–80	✗
San Diego @ Portland	+2.7	145.8	65%	74–87	✓
Howard @ Morgan State	-8.6	149.6	22%	84–59	✓
Richmond @ Loyola Chicago	-7.2	143.8	25%	66–69	✗
Presbyterian @ Winthrop	+10.4	142.6	85%	70–74	✓
Pittsburgh @ California	+7.8	141.6	78%	72–56	✗
Colgate @ Navy	+9.2	140.4	81%	69–85	✓
Toledo @ Ohio	+0.7	151.2	53%	79–67	✗
NJIT @ Bryant	-1.9	132.4	39%	52–69	✗
Northeastern @ Hampton	+2.3	143.9	62%	65–76	✓
Portland State @ Montana	+1.3	140.2	55%	68–74	✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho	+2.6	149.8	64%	76–67	✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington	+11.7	145.0	85%	57–88	✓
Lipscomb @ Eastern Kentucky	-2.2	152.6	40%	80–77	✓
Southern Indiana @ Little Rock	+4.8	136.0	68%	70–89	✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley	+12.7	137.4	87%	67–74	✓
Kansas @ Arizona	+9.4	145.6	83%	61–84	✓
Texas @ Texas A&M	+3.3	160.4	68%	76–70	✗
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State	-0.9	132.6	43%	74–60	✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+6.3	133.5	73%	57–69	✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer	+0.8	148.2	52%	76–82	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Houston Christian	-9.4	133.6	17%	77–56	✓
Lindenwood @ Western Illinois	-7.7	137.7	19%	91–69	✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+5.5	126.4	68%	50–77	✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois	+1.3	130.7	52%	79–43	✗
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls	+5.1	139.1	67%	60–68	✓
Norfolk State @ Coppin State	-7.1	138.3	25%	75–69	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State	+7.1	135.6	76%	73–89	✓
Colorado State @ San José State	-6.4	143.0	24%	85–73	✓
Lamar @ Incarnate Word	+0.4	135.9	49%	60–72	✓
Delaware @ Kennesaw State	+8.2	147.4	81%	82–90	✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State	+12.8	151.0	88%	63–96	✓
BYU @ West Virginia	-3.7	138.8	33%	71–79	✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M	+4.7	149.1	67%	51–72	✓
Providence @ Creighton	+3.0	162.4	66%	79–76	✗
Furman @ Western Carolina	+0.9	144.0	55%	67–86	✓
East Texas A&M @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+11.8	141.5	87%	55–63	✓
Missouri State @ Sam Houston	+11.7	149.0	86%	81–86	✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern	+7.2	151.6	77%	57–82	✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M	+1.5	138.9	60%	89–88	✗
Syracuse @ Wake Forest	+4.3	149.5	70%	83–88	✓
Florida A&M @ Grambling	+3.7	136.3	65%	66–59	✗
San Francisco @ Pacific	+4.8	140.1	72%	72–61	✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton	+0.6	135.0	56%	61–82	✓
SMU @ Stanford	-0.9	149.8	46%	75–95	✗
Brown @ Cornell	+8.5	150.9	81%	80–86	✓
Yale @ Columbia	-4.2	145.9	31%	60–54	✓
Harvard @ Pennsylvania	+2.4	132.6	62%	61–64	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford	+8.6	153.5	82%	78–87	✓
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans	-5.7	145.1	26%	66–63	✓
Weber State @ Idaho State	+0.3	150.2	51%	83–73	✗
Oklahoma @ LSU	+3.9	156.2	69%	83–67	✗
Jacksonville @ North Florida	-0.3	146.1	44%	85–61	✓
Liberty @ Jacksonville State	-2.6	139.9	36%	81–78	✓
Alabama @ Tennessee	+4.4	166.3	64%	71–69	✗
TCU @ Kansas State	-2.2	151.1	39%	77–68	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+13.0	144.7	87%	70–69	✗
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+6.6	131.9	74%	59–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.