Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | AMCC +215 SFA -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -4.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -4.4 (-5.6) | 135.5 (+10.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -2.5 (-7.5) | 134.9 (+11.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -4.2 (-5.8) | 134.4 (+11.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -4.0 (-6.0) | 135.7 (+10.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | SFA 60 – 58 AMCC |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SFA 69 – 60 AMCC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SFA 78 – 64 AMCC |
| Dec 7, 2024 | AMCC 67 – 48 SFA |
| Feb 11, 2021 | SFA 80 – 68 AMCC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 13-9 | 20-2 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#182) | 6.6 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#217) | 1.57 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#185) | 2.05 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#195) | 0.555 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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