Stephen F. Austin
Lumberjacks
60
–
58
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Southland
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Islanders
Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -290 AMCC +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.3 (-4.3) | 132.4 (-14.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -5.3 (-3.3) | 132.4 (-14.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -6.5 (-4.5) | 133.3 (-15.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -6.3 (-4.3) | 133.3 (-15.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | SFA 78 – 68 AMCC |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SFA 69 – 60 AMCC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SFA 78 – 64 AMCC |
| Dec 7, 2024 | AMCC 67 – 48 SFA |
| Feb 11, 2021 | SFA 80 – 68 AMCC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 13-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#97) | -1.0 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#72) | -0.33 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#70) | -0.17 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#77) | 0.498 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | AMCC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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