Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | AMCC -120 SFA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +19 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -6.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -4.1 (+14.9) | 137.4 (-22.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -4.2 (+14.8) | 135.5 (-20.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -3.7 (+15.3) | 134.5 (-19.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -2.7 (+16.3) | 135.0 (-20.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | SFA 60 – 58 AMCC |
| Feb 17, 2026 | SFA 78 – 68 AMCC |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SFA 69 – 60 AMCC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SFA 78 – 64 AMCC |
| Feb 11, 2021 | SFA 80 – 68 AMCC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#183) | -2.5 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#321) | -0.90 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#310) | -1.24 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#353) | 0.451 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 26.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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