Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | LEM -180 FDU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -6.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -4.2 (+16.8) | 149.2 (-6.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -4.6 (+16.4) | 150.6 (-7.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -4.0 (+17.0) | 145.1 (-2.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -4.2 (+16.8) | 146.2 (-3.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | LEM 76 – 59 FDU |
| Jan 26, 2026 | LEM 87 – 74 FDU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | FDU 78 – 74 LEM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FDU 91 – 86 LEM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FDU 68 – 58 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-14 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#299) | -10.5 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#312) | -1.48 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#316) | -2.13 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#306) | 0.436 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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