Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | LEM -155 FDU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +10 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -6.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -3.8 (-13.8) | 154.3 (-28.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -4.7 (-14.7) | 152.2 (-26.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -4.5 (-14.5) | 150.3 (-24.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -4.3 (-14.3) | 152.5 (-26.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | LEM 76 – 59 FDU |
| Jan 26, 2026 | LEM 87 – 74 FDU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | FDU 78 – 74 LEM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | FDU 91 – 86 LEM |
| Mar 7, 2024 | LEM 82 – 61 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-14 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#297) | -10.9 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#310) | -1.62 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#316) | -2.28 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#313) | 0.426 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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