Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | LEM -145 FDU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +5 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -1.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -0.4 (-5.4) | 152.9 (+24.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -1.4 (-6.4) | 150.9 (+26.1) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -1.2 (-6.2) | 150.1 (+26.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -0.8 (-5.8) | 151.5 (+25.5) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | LEM 76 – 59 FDU |
| Jan 26, 2026 | LEM 87 – 74 FDU |
| Jan 31, 2025 | FDU 78 – 74 LEM |
| Mar 7, 2024 | LEM 82 – 61 FDU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FDU 68 – 58 LEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-16 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#335) | -8.9 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#297) | -1.84 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#300) | -2.46 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#301) | 0.409 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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