Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | STO +114 LEM -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | LEM -2.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -2.8 (+11.8) | 133.0 (+12.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -2.8 (+11.8) | 133.1 (+11.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -3.0 (+12.0) | 131.3 (+13.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -3.0 (+12.0) | 133.2 (+11.8) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | STO 81 – 71 LEM |
| Jan 31, 2026 | STO 65 – 54 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | STO 85 – 79 LEM |
| Jan 21, 2025 | LEM 73 – 72 STO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LEM 75 – 67 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#336) | -7.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#348) | -1.40 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.35 (#350) | -1.93 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#345) | 0.443 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.