Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | LEM +105 STO -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEM +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | STO -1.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -2.5 (+3.5) | 144.2 (+0.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -1.8 (+2.8) | 143.0 (+2.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -2.6 (+3.6) | 142.2 (+2.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -2.3 (+3.3) | 143.3 (+1.7) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | STO 81 – 71 LEM |
| Feb 21, 2026 | STO 77 – 68 LEM |
| Jan 31, 2026 | STO 65 – 54 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | STO 85 – 79 LEM |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LEM 75 – 67 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-16 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -12.7 (#344) | -7.2 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#323) | -0.82 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#328) | -1.00 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.402 (#327) | 0.449 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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