Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | STO -260 LEM +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | STO -7.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -6.1 (-0.1) | 146.1 (+17.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -5.3 (+0.7) | 147.2 (+16.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -6.3 (-0.3) | 147.0 (+17.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -6.2 (-0.2) | 147.1 (+16.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | STO 81 – 71 LEM |
| Feb 21, 2026 | STO 77 – 68 LEM |
| Jan 31, 2026 | STO 65 – 54 LEM |
| Jan 21, 2025 | LEM 73 – 72 STO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LEM 75 – 67 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 4-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 81.4 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#318) | -14.0 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#303) | -2.21 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#300) | -2.93 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#299) | 0.405 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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