Betting Lines
| Spread | LEM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LEM -142 STO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +11 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | LEM -8.4 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEM -6.4 (-17.4) | 134.0 (-15.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEM -5.0 (-16.0) | 138.1 (-19.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEM -6.4 (-17.4) | 134.4 (-15.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LEM -6.3 (-17.3) | 135.5 (-16.5) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | STO 81 – 71 LEM |
| Feb 21, 2026 | STO 77 – 68 LEM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | STO 85 – 79 LEM |
| Jan 21, 2025 | LEM 73 – 72 STO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LEM 75 – 67 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEM | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#267) | -11.8 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#277) | -2.39 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#288) | -3.28 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#281) | 0.390 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEM | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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