Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SUU +500 GCU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +21 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -5.8 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -8.4 (-12.6) | 152.7 (+18.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -6.7 (-14.3) | 152.8 (+18.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -6.9 (-14.1) | 153.7 (+17.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -7.1 (-13.9) | 153.7 (+17.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | GCU 74 – 59 SUU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GCU 82 – 71 SUU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | GCU 94 – 65 SUU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | GCU 84 – 66 SUU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GCU 83 – 78 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 17-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#195) | 8.5 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#279) | 3.31 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#264) | 4.22 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#289) | 0.620 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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