Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SUU -213 GCU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +5 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -5.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -5.0 (-10.0) | 151.6 (+9.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -3.5 (-8.5) | 149.7 (+11.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -4.3 (-9.3) | 151.3 (+9.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -5.2 (-10.2) | 152.6 (+8.4) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | GCU 74 – 59 SUU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GCU 82 – 71 SUU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | GCU 94 – 65 SUU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | GCU 96 – 75 SUU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | GCU 84 – 66 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#99) | 2.6 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#94) | 0.44 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#102) | 0.58 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#90) | 0.518 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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