Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -1400 SUU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +29 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -15.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -13.0 (+16.0) | 149.0 (+10.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -12.9 (+16.1) | 151.4 (+7.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -13.4 (+15.6) | 150.1 (+8.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -13.7 (+15.3) | 149.0 (+10.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | GCU 74 – 59 SUU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | GCU 82 – 71 SUU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | GCU 96 – 75 SUU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | GCU 84 – 66 SUU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GCU 83 – 78 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 5-15 |
| Home | 16-0 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#56) | -2.5 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#9) | -0.82 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#15) | -0.67 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#22) | 0.454 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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