Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | SUU +380 GCU -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SUU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -7.8 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -8.9 (-6.1) | 145.7 (-12.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -8.8 (-6.2) | 149.1 (-16.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -9.4 (-5.6) | 150.8 (-17.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -9.7 (-5.3) | 148.2 (-15.2) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2025 | GCU 82 – 71 SUU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | GCU 94 – 65 SUU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | GCU 96 – 75 SUU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | GCU 84 – 66 SUU |
| Mar 2, 2023 | GCU 83 – 78 SUU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SUU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 13-3 |
| Home | 8-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#258) | 5.7 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#245) | 0.92 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#242) | 0.91 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#261) | 0.531 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SUU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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