Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU +120 SHSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +9 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -0.4 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -0.6 (-8.4) | 133.3 (-22.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -1.2 (-7.8) | 132.4 (-21.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -0.9 (-8.1) | 131.9 (-20.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -0.7 (-8.3) | 133.4 (-22.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SHSU 78 – 70 MTSU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTSU 68 – 67 SHSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MTSU 74 – 70 SHSU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 SHSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SHSU 81 – 64 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#296) | -3.2 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#291) | -0.13 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#274) | -0.44 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#309) | 0.511 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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