Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SHSU -450 MTSU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SHSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -9.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -8.7 (+8.3) | 136.1 (+8.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -9.1 (+7.9) | 134.7 (+10.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -8.3 (+8.7) | 135.9 (+9.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -8.1 (+8.9) | 136.6 (+8.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SHSU 78 – 70 MTSU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTSU 68 – 67 SHSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MTSU 74 – 70 SHSU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 SHSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SHSU 60 – 51 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SHSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#170) | -7.0 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#135) | -0.73 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#145) | -0.86 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#120) | 0.456 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SHSU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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