Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -195 SHSU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -6.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -5.2 (-1.2) | 149.8 (-5.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -3.7 (+0.3) | 148.8 (-4.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -5.5 (-1.5) | 147.9 (-3.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -5.4 (-1.4) | 150.2 (-6.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | SHSU 78 – 70 MTSU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTSU 68 – 67 SHSU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 SHSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SHSU 81 – 64 MTSU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | SHSU 60 – 51 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#116) | -0.6 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#86) | -0.22 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#107) | -0.03 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#59) | 0.496 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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