Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -138 BAY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -4.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.0 (+4.0) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -1.3 (+3.3) | 143.3 (+4.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.3 (+4.3) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.2 (+4.2) | 146.8 (+1.2) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2024 | BAY 93 – 85 TEX |
| Feb 25, 2023 | BAY 81 – 72 TEX |
| Jan 31, 2023 | TEX 76 – 71 BAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | BAY 68 – 61 TEX |
| Feb 12, 2022 | BAY 80 – 63 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#57) | 17.1 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#87) | 2.52 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#90) | 3.05 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#100) | 0.617 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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