Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | BAY -250 TEX +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +17 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -6.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -5.7 (+11.3) | 130.7 (+12.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -7.0 (+10.0) | 127.2 (+15.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.9 (+11.1) | 132.4 (+10.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.2 (+10.8) | 134.4 (+8.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2024 | BAY 93 – 85 TEX |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TEX 75 – 73 BAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | BAY 81 – 72 TEX |
| Jan 31, 2023 | TEX 76 – 71 BAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | BAY 68 – 61 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 60.6 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#5) | 15.8 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#7) | 2.65 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.28 (#7) | 3.47 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#17) | 0.587 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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