Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -200 BAY +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -5.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -5.5 (-0.5) | 149.9 (-2.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -5.3 (-0.3) | 147.2 (-0.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -5.2 (-0.2) | 151.1 (-4.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -5.2 (-0.2) | 151.6 (-4.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2024 | BAY 93 – 85 TEX |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TEX 75 – 73 BAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | BAY 81 – 72 TEX |
| Mar 1, 2022 | BAY 68 – 61 TEX |
| Feb 12, 2022 | BAY 80 – 63 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#7) | 14.7 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#9) | 2.94 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#12) | 3.63 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#10) | 0.625 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.