Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -333 TEX +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +8 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -7.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -6.9 (+1.1) | 150.3 (+27.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -7.3 (+0.7) | 150.2 (+27.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.8 (+1.2) | 150.1 (+27.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.4 (+1.6) | 150.9 (+27.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2024 | TEX 75 – 73 BAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | BAY 81 – 72 TEX |
| Jan 31, 2023 | TEX 76 – 71 BAY |
| Mar 1, 2022 | BAY 68 – 61 TEX |
| Feb 12, 2022 | BAY 80 – 63 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#11) | 13.1 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#16) | 1.99 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#17) | 2.42 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#17) | 0.571 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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