Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | TEX +100 BAY -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +7 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -1.8 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -0.2 (-6.8) | 136.6 (-7.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -0.1 (-7.1) | 133.3 (-4.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -0.6 (-6.4) | 137.2 (-8.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -0.1 (-6.9) | 138.6 (-9.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2024 | BAY 93 – 85 TEX |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TEX 75 – 73 BAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | BAY 81 – 72 TEX |
| Jan 31, 2023 | TEX 76 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 12, 2022 | BAY 80 – 63 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#18) | 19.6 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#21) | 3.52 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#18) | 4.29 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#52) | 0.625 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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