Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +163 UNT -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +13 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -3.9 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -2.4 (-10.6) | 133.4 (-10.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -5.1 (-7.9) | 135.2 (-12.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -2.3 (-10.7) | 132.2 (-9.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -2.2 (-10.8) | 134.2 (-11.2) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 84 UNT |
| Jan 29, 2026 | TLSA 82 – 66 UNT |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UNT 72 – 67 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UNT 77 – 59 TLSA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNT 63 – 44 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 64.4 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#172) | 6.8 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#182) | 0.54 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#182) | 1.02 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#211) | 0.521 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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