North Texas
Mean Green
77
–
59
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
American Athletic Conference
Tulsa
Golden Hurricane
Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -1200 TLSA +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -13.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -11.0 (+7.0) | 126.3 (+9.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -11.1 (+6.9) | 127.1 (+8.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -10.4 (+7.6) | 128.5 (+7.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -10.7 (+7.3) | 128.0 (+8.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | TLSA 90 – 84 UNT |
| Jan 29, 2026 | TLSA 82 – 66 UNT |
| Jan 4, 2026 | UNT 72 – 67 TLSA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UNT 63 – 44 TLSA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UNT 68 – 55 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-9 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#80) | -5.8 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#63) | -1.08 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#67) | -1.20 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#39) | 0.431 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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