Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | LT -700 JXST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +5 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | LT -12.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -11.3 (-6.3) | 131.7 (-10.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -10.5 (-5.5) | 131.7 (-10.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -11.8 (-6.8) | 132.8 (-11.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -11.6 (-6.6) | 132.4 (-11.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | LT 77 – 71 JXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | JXST 64 – 60 LT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | JXST 70 – 68 LT |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JXST 63 – 61 LT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LT 74 – 57 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 6-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#76) | -1.1 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#114) | -0.65 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#97) | -0.30 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#75) | 0.458 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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