Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | LT -165 JXST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -1.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -0.8 (-2.8) | 136.5 (+1.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -2.3 (-4.3) | 136.1 (+1.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.8 (-3.8) | 136.3 (+1.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -0.7 (-2.7) | 136.8 (+1.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | LT 77 – 71 JXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | JXST 64 – 60 LT |
| Jan 17, 2025 | JXST 63 – 61 LT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | LT 63 – 58 JXST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LT 74 – 57 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#143) | 2.6 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#106) | 0.95 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#108) | 1.08 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#80) | 0.564 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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