Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -154 VT +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -3.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -4.2 (+10.8) | 143.3 (-0.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -4.4 (+10.6) | 140.5 (+2.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -3.8 (+11.2) | 143.3 (-0.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -4.0 (+11.0) | 144.0 (-1.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | PITT 64 – 59 VT |
| Feb 18, 2023 | VT 79 – 72 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2022 | VT 74 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 6, 2022 | VT 76 – 71 PITT |
| Feb 4, 2021 | PITT 83 – 72 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#49) | 10.1 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#66) | 1.53 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#69) | 2.00 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#111) | 0.558 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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