Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | VT -250 PITT +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | VT -3.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.5 (+5.5) | 146.4 (+4.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -2.9 (+4.1) | 144.6 (+6.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -1.5 (+5.5) | 147.2 (+3.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -1.6 (+5.4) | 149.1 (+1.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | PITT 64 – 59 VT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PITT 79 – 64 VT |
| Feb 8, 2022 | VT 74 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 6, 2022 | VT 76 – 71 PITT |
| Feb 4, 2021 | PITT 83 – 72 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#73) | 8.6 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#77) | 1.99 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#66) | 2.33 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#82) | 0.585 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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