Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +170 VT -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +11 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | VT -3.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -2.1 (+13.1) | 139.0 (+16.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -1.6 (+12.6) | 137.1 (+17.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -2.6 (+13.6) | 138.5 (+16.5) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -2.6 (+13.6) | 139.4 (+15.6) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | PITT 64 – 59 VT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PITT 79 – 64 VT |
| Feb 18, 2023 | VT 79 – 72 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2022 | VT 74 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 6, 2022 | VT 76 – 71 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 15-7 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 9-4 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-5 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#92) | 12.3 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#97) | 2.75 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#97) | 3.58 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#167) | 0.619 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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