Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | FAU -300 MEM +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +8 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -7.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -5.6 (+2.4) | 160.6 (+15.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -7.1 (+0.9) | 164.3 (+11.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -6.1 (+1.9) | 160.5 (+15.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -6.0 (+2.0) | 160.7 (+15.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MEM 92 – 65 FAU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | FAU 89 – 78 MEM |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MEM 84 – 65 FAU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MEM 90 – 62 FAU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MEM 78 – 74 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#34) | 8.1 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#38) | 1.70 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#35) | 2.10 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#17) | 0.580 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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