Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | MEM -400 FAU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -10.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -10.4 (+8.6) | 160.7 (-11.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -9.5 (+9.5) | 160.2 (-11.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -11.5 (+7.5) | 159.6 (-10.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -10.8 (+8.2) | 161.4 (-12.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MEM 92 – 65 FAU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | FAU 89 – 78 MEM |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MEM 90 – 62 FAU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAU 92 – 84 MEM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MEM 78 – 74 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 11-2 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#51) | 4.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#14) | 0.53 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#22) | 0.69 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.652 (#4) | 0.540 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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