Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | FAU +135 MEM -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +28 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -1.8 (-26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -4.4 (-23.6) | 159.6 (-7.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -1.6 (-26.4) | 158.9 (-6.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -3.8 (-24.2) | 159.8 (-7.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -2.4 (-25.6) | 160.4 (-8.4) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MEM 92 – 65 FAU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | FAU 89 – 78 MEM |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MEM 84 – 65 FAU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAU 92 – 84 MEM |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MEM 78 – 74 FAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#87) | 12.5 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#108) | 3.48 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#90) | 4.22 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#61) | 0.718 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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