Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -11.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -12.3 (+6.7) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -10.1 (+8.9) | 140.5 (+8.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -12.2 (+6.8) | 140.0 (+9.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -12.1 (+6.9) | 139.3 (+9.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | JMU 81 – 75 TOW |
| Nov 17, 2024 | TOW 67 – 63 JMU |
| Feb 26, 2022 | TOW 95 – 59 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2021 | JMU 78 – 63 TOW |
| Jan 16, 2021 | JMU 81 – 72 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 15-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 11-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#89) | -2.3 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#78) | -0.02 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#75) | -0.27 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#64) | 0.500 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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